*This piece was written for and appeared on Point of Information originally, found here*
You’d be forgiven for thinking that coronavirus has done some good for the environment due to the multitude of headlines broadcasting the ‘silver lining’ of lockdown. Anecdotes have warmed our hearts: the increased sightings of rare birds across the UK; dolphins returning to the canals of Venice (which, ironically, proved to be false); and the Himalayas being visible from India for the first time in 30 years due to reduced air pollution. From this, one cannot help but be hopeful that coronavirus will do the climate some good.
Worldwide, COVID-19’s beneficial impact on the environment has been reported in climate analysis. Global carbon emissions are estimated to have dropped by 17%. This is the greatest drop the world has ever experienced and six times greater than the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the climate. Carbon Brief analysis revealed that Chinese energy use and emissions fell by 25% in just two weeks, due to stringent lockdown. Their coal use fell by 40% and the proportion of days with “good quality air” increased by 11.4%. In the UK, a recent ICOS study revealed that London’s carbon emissions dropped 58% during lockdown.
When hearing such statistics, one cannot help but agree with Dutch trends forecaster, Li Edelkoort’s assertion that COVID-19 is “an amazing grace for the planet”… right?
I’m afraid not.
Low emissions will not be long-lived. Climate scientists expect dramatic increases in emissions in the near future. In fact, despite a current emissions drop of 17% , the World Meteorological Organisation predicts that our annual carbon dioxide emissions will only drop by 6%. This is because the pandemic has not caused long-term behavioural changes.
For example, the transport sector, heavily hit by the pandemic, accounts for 23% of global carbon emissions. However, throughout lockdown reduced car journeys accounted for almost half of the decrease in global emissions during the peak of quarantine on April 7th. Therefore, these decreases were not a result of long-term and sustained efforts. As life returns to normal, so will these emission levels.
Similarly, lockdown revealed that nothing will stop our consumerist habits. The fact that Jeff Bezos is set to become the world’s first trillionaire after the demand for Amazon went through the roof, highlights that society is unable to cut back on consuming even during a pandemic. In the US, online sales have grown by 76% in June. Additionally, the shutting down of businesses caused serious amounts of waste. UK brands such as Primark, Asda and Matalan cancelled £2.4 billion worth of fashion orders according to Bangladeshi and Garment Manufacturers Exporters Association (BGMEA). Not only did this force over a million Bangladeshi garment workers to be sent home without pay or even a job, but also left behind mountains of clothing waste for orders placed, then cancelled. Likewise, disposable PPE, whilst crucial, will significantly contribute to global waste in years to come. Maybe disposable masks will become the latest ‘eco villain’, the next plastic straw?
Historically, all major crises and events cause a global drop in emissions in the short term. However, times of recovery often mean the need to re-invigorate the economy supersede concerns for the environment. After the 2008 Financial Crash, carbon emissions shot up by 5% as a result of stimulus packages to encourage fossil fuel use. In fact, China started the “largest and most polluting economic stimulus programme in history” according to Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Finland’s Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Thus, it is clear that while COVID-19 has revealed many things about how our society operates, it has not opened our eyes to how we will solve the climate crisis. Lockdown made the world stop. To those fortunate enough to work from home, consider how little you ventured outside, how few people you saw, how restricted your life was. Think about all the sacrifices you made, your friends made, nations made. Supermarkets had shelves emptied, stock was unable to come in, orders were cancelled. Our lives effectively ground to a halt and we only reduced global carbon emissions by 17%! Imagine the extent to which our lives need to change for emissions to be cut entirely, as per the government’s carbon net zero target for 2050.
Sure, coronavirus has shown that we are able and willing to come together in the name of public safety. But it seems only possible when an palpable threat is imminent. Our inherent loss aversion means that we are incapable of prioritising long-term threats over short-term comforts. The climate emergency is an existential and cumulative threat, one that will not have a trigger event until it is too late.
We can all agree that coronavirus has changed the way we view the world and our lifestyles. Aptly put, economist Tim Harford notes, “The virus has taught us that our way of life is more vulnerable than we might hope. It has taught us the importance of making sacrifices now to prepare for predictable risks in the future.” We all recognise that a meeting can be done on a Zoom call rather than flying halfway across the world, that working from home is a possibility. Is that enough reason to herald coronavirus as the saviour of the planet?